Researchers are challenged with exploring and understanding the future of social-ecological systems while addressing their inherent uncertainty. Consequently, scenarios are widely used to explore consistent and realistic narratives of possible future land cover/use patterns, to disseminate co-produced land cover/use change information, to inform policy, and enact positive change. The ARCC project incorporates the KESHO framework (developed by Claudia Capitani et al. 2016) for the participatory modelling of ‘land use change scenarios’. Insights generated from a series of workshops held in Karatu, Maswa, Mugumo and Amboseli are being used in combination with existing climate projections and ecological data to model potential future land use change trajectories at 2030 and 2063. These date were selected as they connect to the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union Development agenda. The iterative process in which these model outputs are created, which includes their presentation to workshop participants for feedback and recalibration, is facilitating deep consideration of the implications and outcomes of land use change on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being.
Rebecca Kariuki facilitating a workshop in Karatu
Click the links to download more info on the KESHO framework – available in English and Swahili.